How Many Congressional Republicans Does America Need?
Here I estimate the numbers of Republican Senators and Congressmen that America needs to elect, in order to obtain effective pro-American majorities, that is, Senators and Congressmen that are pro-American, and still in the majority after a certain percentage of GOP dissenters vote with the Democrats. To obtain estimates, I use the House and Senate voting records on only one Resolution: H.J.Res.46: the Democratic-sponsored bill to terminate the National Emergency that President Trump declared on Feb. 15, 2019.
The National Emergency is to fund a southern border wall, which Americans need for basic security. To oppose the National Emergency is to move against our basic security. So, I see the H.J.Res.46 voting record as a reasonable gauge of pro-Americanism in Congress: Those that voted against H.J.Res.46 are pro-American; they want Americans to have the basic security of a border wall. Those that voted for H.J.Res.46 put something else before our basic security. Being pro-American does not come first to them.
In the case of Democratic Senators and Congressmen, being pro-Democratic Party comes first. In the case of GOP Senators and Congressmen that dissented against President Trump, and voted with the Democrats, I don’t know what came first to them, but it wasn’t being pro-American.
From the count of Republicans that voted for H.J.Res.46, I get GOP Senate and House dissension quotients. From those, I estimate how many Republicans America needs to elect to Congress to block anti-American legislation, or pass pro-American legislation, despite GOP dissenters.
The Democratic Party’s dissension quotients are either zero or very low. On H.J.Res.46 they were zero in both Houses. This means, incidentally, that there is a real border emergency. It is two-pronged.
The first prong is the obvious one: criminals, traffickers and smugglers are entering into our Republic unchecked. In addition, our federal Government’s capacity to process asylum claims and detain illegal aliens has already been pushed beyond its limits. Contrary to Democratic Party lies, we need to get a handle on the border.
The second prong is that the Democratic Party $machine wants a porous border, and works to keep it that way. The more illegals that enter, the better, as far as the $machine is concerned, because illegals tend to vote Democratic. If not for Democratic Party opposition, America would have had a really good border wall 20 years ago.
Only GOP Senators and Congressmen voted Nay on H.J.Res.46.
The official line of dissenting GOP Congressmen and Senators (those that voted Yea) is that, by declaring a National emergency, President Trump overrode the will of Congress, which represents the will of the People, and Congress needs to exercise its Constitutional check on the executive. This is 100% untreated, Democratic donkey dung, pressed into a pan, popped out onto a rack, and coated with white frosting. Some GOP Senators and Congressmen ate it up like it was a fine wedding cake.
What a waste of good frosting.
President Trump is acting in America’s interests, and in accordance with his oath of office, to keep Americans secure. Senate and Congressional Democrats recklessly neglect our security, in order to pursue selfish ends. Their concern is not for the Constitution, but that they might continue to obtain a steady supply of new, Democratic voters, entering illegally across our porous border. The one true thing that the Democrats say is that they want to check President Trump’s power. They want to demolish it; they want Trump out. If the Democratic $machine really cared about checking the power of the executive to declare Emergencies, they would have done so when Obama was President; they care about checking it, only when a President uses it for the good of the Republic.
America currently has 53 GOP Senators, plus VP Pence, if there is a tie. Some might think that America is doing OK with a 53-47 GOP edge in the Senate. But that is not the case, because 12 GOP Senators voted anti-American, that is, with the Democratic Party.
It seems at first that, if Americans elected 10 more GOP Senators, then America would have a 63-37 GOP majority, and that even if 12 of the 63 dissented, America would still have 51 Senators to vote pro-American. But it isn’t quite that simple, because statistically, a certain percentage of the 10 additional GOP Senators would also vote with the Democrats. We need more than 10 more.
Here is the GOP Senate dissension quotient: 12 ÷ 53 ≈ 0.2264. To get an effective pro-America majority, we need to look at:
x − x ⋅ 0.2264 = 51 x(1 − 0.2264) = 51 0.7736 x = 51 x ≈ 65.93. Call it 66.
We need a 66-34 Senate majority to block anti-American legislation in the U.S. Senate. That’s 13 more than the 53 that we currently have. Checking my work:
Statistically, when we elect 66 GOP Senators, 66 ⋅ 0.2264 = 14.94 of them would vote with the Democrats. Call it 15.
66 − 15 = 51 (pro-American). 34 + 15 = 49 (pro-Dem).
We need to elect 66 GOP Senators to give the GOP an effective 51 to 49 pro-American majority. In the case of a tie, VP Pence breaks it:
x − x ⋅ 0.2264 = 50 x(1 − 0.2264) = 50 0.7736 x = 50 x ≈ 64.63. Call it 65.
With VP Pence as tie-breaker, we need to elect only 65 GOP Senators. That’s 12 more than we currently have. Checking my work:
Statistically, when we elect 65 GOP Senators, 65 ⋅ 0.2264 = 14.72 of them would vote with the Democrats. Call it 15.
65 − 15 = 50 (a wash). 65 − 15 + VP = 51 (pro-American). 35 + 15 = 50 (pro-Dem).
Whether the number is 66 or 65, it’s outrageous that 22.6% of GOP Senators voted with the Democrats against America.
GOP dissenters are not as large a percentage in the House. Despite all the bovine splatter about comity, bipartisanship and sophistication in the Senate, House Republicans taken together have more merit than Senate Republicans. Comity and bipartisanship in the Senate mean, “Let’s do things the Democrat’s way!”, which in this case means, “Let’s keep the southern border porous! Aw heck, let’s just open the southern border!”
The House has positions for 435 members, and there are currently three vacancies. So, there are 432 members. 235 are Democratic, 197 Republican. A typical Resolution needs a simple majority to pass: 217 + 215 = 432. So with no GOP dissenters, America would need 217 − 197 = 20 Democrats to come around to a pro-American way of thinking, and vote that way, provided that the House Dem leadership would permit the vote. But 13 GOP Congressmen dissented. They voted with the House Democrats to terminate America’s National Emergency.
197 + 20 + 13 = 230. With 13 GOP dissenters, America needs 33 more Congressmen voting pro-American. That’s 33 more than voted pro-American on H.J.Res.46. Checking my work, the actual House vote was 245-182, a difference of 63. With 32 more Nays, H.J.Res.46 would have failed 213-214. So, I seem to be off by 1.
My work assumes that all 432 members vote. But only 427 actually voted. Three Democrats and two Republicans did not vote. So I have to include a qualifier: With all House members voting, 33 Democrats or dissenting Republicans need to leave the darkness, and come to the light, given the present make-up of the House, and given 13 GOP dissenters and zero Dem dissenters. However, to elect enough Republicans to obtain an effective pro-American majority requires more than 33 more Republicans. That’s because statistically, some of the additional 33 would dissent. Here is the GOP House dissension quotient: 13 ÷ 197 ≈ 0.0660. We need to look at:
x − x ⋅ 0.0660 = 217 x(1 − 0.0660) = 217 0.9340 x = 217 x ≈ 232.33. Call it 232.
With the 6.6% dissension rate, the nation needs to elect at least 232 GOP Congressmen to get an effective pro-American House majority. That’s 35 more Republicans. Statistically, two of them would dissent, leaving America with the 33 more that we need. Checking my work:
Statistically, when we elect 232 GOP Congressmen, 232 × 0.0660 = 15.31 of them would vote with the Democrats. Call it 15.
232 − 15 = 217 (pro-American). 432 − 232 + 15 = 215 (pro-Dem).
To sum up, Americans need to elect enough additional Republicans to compensate for Republican dissensions, plus a little more, because statistically, some of the additional Republicans would also be dissenters.
To obtain the minimum pro-American edge that America needs, Americans need to elect 66 GOP Senators (65 if the VP is Republican), 232 GOP House members, and a GOP President. Presently, America has 53 GOP Senators, 197 GOP House members, and a GOP President, and he has to declare a National Emergency, and then veto a Resolution to terminate it, just to provide something as basic to our security as a border wall.